Election 2016: Which presidential candidate has the best home for solar?

This week, Republican and Democratic presidential candidates will face off in their final televised debates of the year.

These politicians are not just candidates for president, however. Like millions of other Americans, they’re also candidates to install solar panels on their roof and save money on their energy bill.

We’ll leave it to the voters and pundits to pick the best candidates for Commander in Chief. But when it comes to identifying which candidates can save the most money by going solar, we can offer some insights – based on our experience of installing more residential solar power than any other provider in America.

Sizing up the candidates

To assess which presidential candidates are best suited to go solar, we considered various criteria, including: 

-the amount of sunlight each candidate’s neighborhood receives 

-the friendliness of state and local policies toward solar power 

-the cost of conventional grid electricity in each candidate’s area

All other things equal, a strong solar candidate is one whose home receives plentiful sunlight, who lives in an area with friendly solar policies, and who currently pays a high price for grid electricity (see our full methodology for this post).

The Republicans

The Republican field is crowded and full of residents from sunny Florida, but it’sChris Christie of New Jersey who emerges as the GOP’s top solar candidate. Installing solar panels at his home in Mendham, NJ could win him major energy bill savings – arguably more than any of his competitors. 

What gives Governor Christie the edge? New Jersey isn’t as sunny as southerly states, but it still catches more than enough rays to make rooftop solar a winning proposition. Thanks to the Garden State’s stellar clean energy policies, including alaw that 4.1% of its electricity be sun-powered by 2028, the Christie household has a strong incentive to go solar.

Since New Jersey’s utility electricity prices are among the highest in the nation, using rooftop power can be a huge money saver. And for every megawatt hour of solar energy a homeowner does produce, they can earn hundreds of dollars in tradable “renewable energy credits” – often yielding more than $1,000 per year. That market-driven incentive suggests Christie is poised to be a highly successful solar customer.

The Garden State’s well-designed net metering rules also support Christie’s solar candidacy: his local utility pays homes fair and full compensation for any surplus clean power they contribute to the grid -- a policy that Governor Christie himself recently moved to expand.

Other GOP hopefuls

What about the other Republicans in the running? Donald Trump’s residency in New York implies that he’d be an excellent solar candidate – given the state’s high electricity prices and generous clean energy incentives – but there’s a complication: the roof of Trump Tower, underneath which Donald lives in a three-floor penthouse, appears to be full of obstacles that could impede solar panels. (Don’t worry, we’ll revisit New York when we assess the Democratic contenders below.)

The roof of Trump Tower -- underneath which Donald resides -- is undeniably "huge." But there appear to be various structural obstacles to installing  a full system of solar panels. (Image from Google Maps: 725 5th Ave, New York, NY) 

Ted Cruz lives in a high-rise condo in Houston. But even if he were able to talk his condo board into installing a rooftop system, he’d still be a mediocre solar candidate in 2016. Texas currently has no statewide incentive for solar, nor a framework to compensate homes for contributing clean electricity to the grid. However, Houston’s convention center is topped with a large solar array, and a number of energy providers in Texas do actively support distributed generation; Senator Cruz could conceivably find a way to keep his candidacy alive.

John Kasich’s solar candidacy isn’t much stronger than Senator Cruz’s. Ohio does have a solid net metering policy, but the state’s solar goals are meager (only 0.5% of electricity by 2026) and there are few real incentives to put panels on one’s roof. Kasich’s utility electricity rates, like Cruz’s, are relatively low. And his neighborhood in Westerville receives less sunlight than any other GOP candidate. That doesn’t rule Governor Kasich out of the race, but he’s a long shot.

Despite living in the most sun-drenched neighborhoods, the three Floridian contenders – Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson – are among the weakest solar candidates due to Florida’s energy policy shortcomings. The state has a basic net metering law, but solar and other renewables are largely neglected in the Sunshine State. There are no true solar incentives and the state actually prohibits the most affordable way for a home to go solar – a no-money-down lease or power-purchase agreement (PPA).

Very few states and jurisdictions in the US prohibit solar leases and PPA’s like Florida does, but Carly Fiorina’s area of Virginia is another one of them. Combine that with Virginia’s low electricity prices and its limitations on net metering, and you can see why Fiorina is this election’s lowest-ranked Republican solar candidate.

The Democrats

The Democratic contest of solar candidates is a much smaller affair, and far more competitive than the Republican race. But one candidate stands apart as most likely to save a bundle by going solar – and that’s Hillary Clinton.

The Clintons have plenty of roof space on their estate in Chappaqua, and have access to New York’s terrific solar incentives – including a $600/kilowatt discount on installation (e.g. $3K off for a typical 5 kilowatt rooftop system), a state tax credit up to $5K, and a strong regulatory commitment to net metering. The state is also working hard to extend these benefits beyond upper-class neighborhoods like Chappaqua: low-income New Yorkers qualify for significantly greater solar incentivesthan wealthy households like the Clintons.

Hillary’s candidacy looks even more compelling when you consider that New York’s residential prices for grid electricity are among the highest in the nation. In SolarCity’s experience, New York solar customers save $256 on average on their electricity bill in the first year alone.

New York is a great place for residents like Hillary to go solar in part thanks to a state initiative called Reforming the Energy Vision, which has prompted utility companies like Hillary’s to support advanced grid technologies such as distributed solar and battery storage.

There’s no doubt that Clinton’s challengers, Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley, are also strong solar candidates.

Senator Bernie Sanders’ state of Vermont is aiming to source 75% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2032 and, to help get there, his utility in Burlington offers a supersized payment for solar electricity that homeowners contribute to the grid. Moreover, using free fuel from the sun just makes practical sense given Vermont’s increasingly expensive grid electricity.

Maryland’s Martin O’Malley also could save big by going solar at his home in Baltimore. His state seeks to generate 20% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2022, a portion of which must come from solar. If O’Malley were to install rooftop panels, he’d get paid by his utility for sending clean power to the grid, as well as earn renewable energy credits worth hundreds of dollars – which could help him fund his underdog electoral campaign.

The Road to the White House

Will 2016’s presidential candidates – Republican and Democrat – realize the potential of their candidacy to go solar? At least a few of them stand to save big bucks on their energy bill, and installing solar panels has never been simpler or easier than it is today. Every 2.5 minutes, another American home or business goes solar.

Today’s weaker solar candidates could very well become stronger candidates in the near future. The solar energy landscape in places like Texas and Florida is showing seeds of progress. Awaking these “sleeping giants” with effective solar policies and energy innovation could easily upend the rankings above.

Regardless, at least one presidential hopeful will be using solar power by early 2017. The next leader of the free world will move into a house that already comes equipped with a rooftop solar array.

Rooftop solar panels on the White House (Credit: Whitehouse.gov via YouTube)

But of course you don’t need to be a presidential contender to go solar. Find out what kind of solar candidate you are here.

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Barry Fischer is Editorial Director at SolarCity; Graphics by Priscilla Lopez.

Methodology and Data Sources:

The candidates we considered were those who consistently received voter support of at least 2% in national polls between November 23 and December 1, according toRealClearPolitics’ poll aggregator.  

Location of residences is based on LoanDepot.com’s overview of presidential candidates’ homes.

Daily average sunlight: candidates' hometowns were plugged into NREL’s PV Watts calculator. Solar irradiation estimates (kWh/m2/day) correspond to the nearest TMY2 location from NREL’s National Solar Radiation Database. The tables in the post depict a ranking out of 6 kWh/m2/day, which treats the generally sunniest region of America (the Southwest) as a yardstick. Candidates’ neighborhoods had fairly similar solar irradiation, so this variable was less prominent in our analysis.

Local solar policy ranking was based on four criteria. Satisfying three or more criteria earned a happy face (NJ, NY, VT, MD); satisfying two criteria earned a neutral face (OH, TX); satisfying zero or one criterion earned a sad face (FL, VA).

-The candidate’s home has access to net metering (either through state policy or a competitive electric provider), and the state cap is >1% of aggregate peak demand.

-Their jurisdiction allows third-party solar leases and power purchase agreements.

-Their state has a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), and the RPS has a carve-out of >1% for solar or distributed generation.

-Their state offers a non-negligible rebate for solar installation, and/or awards Solar Renewable Energy Credits.

Utility electric prices are residential averages (rounded to the nearest cent) from 2014, according to the US Energy Information Administration (as reported in December 2015). The note that utility electricity prices are rising in each candidate’s state is based on the trend that between 2002 and 2015, residential electricity prices in each state increased in both nominal and real terms (faster than the rate of economy-wide inflation).

Qualitative estimate of expected bill savings: strong solar policy and above-average electric prices (>$0.12/kWh) led to high expected savings; mediocre solar policy led to moderate expected savings; deficient policy led to low expected savings.

The number of SolarCity operations centers in a candidate’s state implies a certain degree of regional readiness for installing solar panels, but was not explicitly considered in our assessment.

New York first-year customer savings savings based on residential PPA and lease customers with at least twelve months of billing data. Savings Rate calculated by subtracting PPA or equivalent lease kWh rate from relevant utility kWh rate. Savings calculated by multiplying actual kWh supplied by SolarCity in customers' first year times Savings Rate. Excludes fully or partially prepaid contracts.

www.gonesolarusa.com

Can your solar rooftop put a dent in climate change?

At the United Nations climate talks currently underway in Paris, the focus is on energy – and rightfully so: more than 70 percent  of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from energy-related sources like electricity production, heating, and transportation.

More than 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) come from energy-related sources. (World Resources Institute, 2015)

Among strategies to combat climate change, low-carbon energy sources like solar and wind are indispensable. Making electricity with solar panels, for example, entails91% less CO2 pollution than using natural gas, and 96% less CO2 than coal. Not to mention the sun won’t run out of fuel for another 5 to 7 billion years.

Going solar is the simplest and biggest action a home or organization can take to reduce its carbon footprint. It’s already cheaper for an energy customer to buy solar power instead of buying grid power in many places. The logic behind solar as an effective weapon against climate change, however, lies in its scale: the exponential growth of solar adoption in the last five years is a testament to what is possible.

Even considering this phenomenal growth, can solar power move the needle on climate change? And can distributed solar in particular – installed in places like residential rooftops, commercial buildings, and community-sized solar arrays – add up to meaningful reductions in CO2?

Solar power has the momentum to cut CO2 pollution at scale

Analysts anticipate that solar will be integral to an energy future that supports a healthy planet. The International Energy Agency has outlined how solar panels (a.k.a. photovoltaics, or PV technology) could generate up to 16% of the world’s electricity by 2050; investment bank UBS puts that number at 25% in a “high solar” scenario; researchers from Stanford University envision an even brighter future, in which more than 50% of countries’ electricity comes from solar.

 Solar PV has the momentum to become an integral part of world energy supply. By the end of 2015, global solar capacity will exceed 200 gigawatts – enough to power the entire state of California (the 8th largest economy in the world). Chart from REN 21.  

Simple math suggests that solar power could solve a meaningful chunk of the CO2 pollution problem -- the leading cause of global warming. Consider a major-emitting country, like the US or China, where roughly 40% of CO2 emissions come from the electricity sector. Were the country to shift to getting one fourth of its electricity from solar power, it would effectively cut 10% of the country’s CO2 pollution. Combine that with nine similarly large-scale climate solutions– from any of an array of technologies and innovations – and you start to halt global warming.  

While solar is most obviously a tool to decarbonize our electricity supply away from coal and natural gas, the convergence of solar power and electric vehicles can likewise move the needle on climate change – by reducing the transportation sector’s oil-driven CO2 emissions.

Distributed solar power is shaping up to be a major part of solar’s growth

Alongside large-scale solar power plants, how big of a role can distributed solar power have in reducing CO2 emissions?

In many countries, it accounts for half or more of a country’s installed solar photovoltaic capacity. And market research suggests that over the next decade,more distributed solar PV will be installed globally than utility-scale PV.

Today in the US, distributed solar represents roughly half of installed solar power capacity. In leading solar countries like Germany and Japan, the proportion of distributed generation is even higher. India aspires to increase its solar power capacity twentyfold by 2022, and is aiming to install 40% of it on rooftops. Other emerging economies, from Kenya to Bangladesh, are ramping up distributed solar to provide low-carbon grid power and also to expand off-grid energy access. 

The surface area of US rooftops, if covered by solar panels, is large enough to meet 60% of the country’s electricity needs in 2050. 

Distributed generation can also help communities adapt to climate impacts that are inevitable based on yesteryear’s global warming pollution. That’s because distributed systems can be designed to provide local backup power in case of grid failure, such as after unusually intense storms. Moreover, solar power systems (both distributed and large-scale) can help regions adapt to climate change effects like drought conditions: all things considered, solar PV technology uses a trivial fraction (as little as 1/200th) of the water used at a typical power plant.

Realizing solar power’s full potential to cut CO2 pollution is a matter of choice and policy

Solar power’s global momentum is good news for curbing climate change – it’s a low-carbon solution that we know works, that creates jobs, and that can be deployed at scale.

It’s concerning that a number of utilities in states like sunny California and Nevada want to stifle distributed solar power. Instead of innovating to develop the grid of the future, dozens of utilities are fighting policies that fairly compensate energy customers for contributing clean power to the electric grid. It’s a clear case of utilities seeking to protect their profits, rather than protecting than the planet or the interests of their customers.

We need policies and business models that embrace all forms of low-carbon energy – and that create opportunities for everyone to adopt clean power. It’s critical that we have the right policies in force on the ground today – in US states and beyond – that allow clean energy to grow at a pace that matches the urgency of the problem it’s solving.

Because with every solar rooftop, we all advance that much closer to solving the climate challenge.

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Note: Calculation that today's global solar PV capacity is enough to power California, is based on 200 gigawatts of global PV capacity, an assumed 15% capacity factor, andstate-level data on annual electric consumption. 

www.gonesolarusa.com

Put Battery Storage in the Hands of Grid Operators.

The design of an electrical grid for the 21st Century is one of the world’s most exciting challenges, and at SolarCity we are vigorously engaged in assisting the effort. Our vision is of a grid that is cleaner, more efficient, more flexible, more secure, and more affordable than what we currently have today.

I’ve recently read speculation about one of the most valuable tools to advance this vision—energy storage—that needs to be addressed.

Battery storage for residential, commercial, and utility-scale customers is one of the most anticipated developments in the energy space, and recently SolarCity participated in media stories exploring some of the challenges we've faced trying to get our customers' residential storage units interconnected in California.

That narrative is real, but it’s only half the story. While there is tension between utilities and companies like SolarCity, we work with them every day to connect our solar power systems, and there's potential for much greater synergy. In fact, batteries should power that synergy.

One of the more polarizing ideas going around is that battery storage will lead to mass defections from the grid. Needing only their solar and their batteries, the story goes, Americans will simply cut the cord.

While this is technically feasible, SolarCity has no interest in this scenario. While cutting the cord enables one household to be 100% renewable and self-sufficient, it limits what these technologies can do. In short, the grid is a network, and where there are networks, there are network effects. When batteries are optimized across the grid, they can direct clean solar electricity where (and when) it is needed most, lowering costs for utilities and for all ratepayers. This is true of homeowners' behind-the-meter storage units, and it’s also true of larger commercial and utility-scale units.

Grid operators are best-positioned to direct battery storage to discharge clean energy at optimal moments—for example when demand is at its highest, and when grid infrastructure is most under strain. Without this storage capacity, solar penetration in excess of 60% of mid-day peak could become problematic for the grid, as utilities have to contend with an abundance of power which can cause voltage and power balance issues.

However, with storage in the hands of grid operators and utilities, this problem becomes an immensely powerful solution. In this scenario, grid operators are suddenly empowered to store and discharge solar energy where and when it's needed most, smoothing out peaks and ramps, while powering more of the total grid consumption with clean and renewable sources. Additionally, utilizing storage to unlock massive benefits in the areas of frequency and voltage support can further lower grid costs. Many of these capabilities are available now through distributed resources, even without storage, and we should work together to put them into the hands of utilities for the benefit of the ratepayers.

Any utilities or grid operators interested in exploring storage benefits such as peak shaving, frequency regulation, and voltage support should contact us. I’ve recently created a Grid Engineering Solutions department made up of some of the brightest minds in power systems engineering, and its mission is to help solve the challenges preventing the shift from the grid that we currently have, to the grid that we need.

As with the example of the solar/storage customer who goes fully off-grid, we can do so much more working together than we can working alone.

www.gonesolarusa.com

Best of the Best: Commercial Solar

In celebration of SolarCity generating one billion kilowatt-hours of clean electricity*, we wanted to highlight some of our favorite commercial solar projects that have helped us reach this milestone.

Best Use of Solar Savings: Firebaugh-Las Deltas Unified School District – Fresno, California

With its solar savings,Firebaugh-Las Deltas Unified School District was able to restore their music instruction program, which had been suspended since 2009 due to lack of funding. Thanks to the millions the district will save over the life of the installations, solar power is music to the ears of teachers and parents for saving priceless education opportunities for their children.

Scope: Three project sites for a total of more than 900 kilowatts of solar - Las Deltas USD High School, Firebaugh Middle School and Hazel Bailey Elementary School.

Most Green on Green Action: Las Virgenes-Triunfo Joint Powers Authority – Calabasas, California

Not only has Las Virgenes-Triunfo Joint Powers Authority been active in promoting the use of recycled water, it now uses a renewable source of energy to power the supply of recycled water to nearby communities.

The precious recycled water resources will be used to irrigate community green spaces, school grounds, commercial landscapes and golf courses. Even more, switching to solar power from traditional forms of energy generation such as coal or natural gas also helps save millions of gallons of fresh water each year.

Scope:One commercial system totaling more than a megawatt of ground-mounted solar with tracking systems.

Dirty Energy Offset Royalty: Kaua’i Island Utility Cooperative (KIUC) – Koloa, Kaua’i. 

KIUC’s project will consist of more than 54,000 solar panels installed on 67 acres. Once complete, the system is expected to generate enough power to provide approximately six percent of Kaua’i’s daily energy needs and is expected to reduce the utility’s oil imports by more than 1 million barrels over its lifetime.

Scope: A giant 14 megawatt ground mount commercial solar project.

Most Trailblazing: Davis Monthan Air Force Base – Tuscon, Arizona

This mega project is one of the largest solar-powered residential communities in the continental U.S.

2.7MW of rooftop solar systems were installed on over 900 residences on the base, and a 45,000 panel ground-mounted system adds another 3.3 megawatts of solar capacity to the community, This was the first project of the SolarStrong initiative, a program which intended to allow privatized military housing developers to save money on energy costs that can be reallocated toward quality of life improvements and enhanced services for military families.

Scope:Six megawatts of total solar capacity through ground-mounted photovoltaic systems and rooftop solar panels installed on hundreds of residences throughout the community.

What commercial solar power project stands out to you? We want to hear your feedback in the comments section!

www.gonesolarusa.com